top of page

San Francisco Assessment Roll Growth Plummets to Lowest Rate Since 2011

  • Bay Area Real Estate Insider
  • Aug 4
  • 2 min read
ree

San Francisco’s property values grew just 1.8% in the fiscal year ending June 30, 2025—marking the lowest increase since 2011 and placing the city at the bottom among Bay Area counties in terms of assessment roll expansion.

A Sluggish Year in Property Valuation

  • The city’s total assessed value—spanning land, structures, and business property—rose to approximately $353.5 billion, up just 1.8% year-over-year.

  • Declines in the valuation of cross downtown condos, office buildings, hotels, and certain multifamily properties contributed significantly to stagnation.

  • This 1.8% increase is a drop from the previous year’s 2.2% growth—continuing a downward trend that officials warn may impact revenue forecasts.

Comparative Bay Area Trends

  • San Francisco now trails behind counties like Santa Clara (≈ 4.2% growth) and Alameda (≈ 3.7%)—both higher than the city in assessment roll increases.

  • More residential or suburban counties, such as Solano, outpaced urban centers due to ongoing housing development.

Fiscal Forecast: Flat or Declining Tax Revenues

  • City budget analysts are sounding alarms: relatively flat assessment roll growth suggests property tax revenues may stagnate or even decline in the coming years.

  • Michelle Allersma, director of the Controller’s Office Budget and Analysis Division, called this “a hit” to city finances, given ongoing spending pressures.

Root Causes: Appeals and Commercial Softness

  • A surge in assessment appeals reflects declining valuations. More property owners are challenging high assessments—especially on commercial and downtown properties.

  • The continued effects of the pandemic—namely remote work and reduced demand for office space—have reduced valuations across the downtown commercial corridor.

Why It Matters: Broader Implications for the City

  • Property taxes are San Francisco’s largest source of general revenue. Slowed roll growth presents a challenge in sustaining funding for key services like public safety, affordable housing, and infrastructure.

  • The trend represents a major reversal from years when San Francisco led the state in roll growth—telling a cautionary tale about shifting market dynamics.

In Summary

San Francisco's real estate-based revenue engine is visibly slowing:

  • 1.8% assessment roll growth is the lowest in over a decade

  • The city ranks last among its Bay Area peers

  • Market softness and rising appeals challenge future tax collections

As slower valuation trends persist, city officials face the task of navigating a tighter fiscal landscape—while continuing to fund critical public services and meet budget expectations.

Sources:

 
 
 
bottom of page